CURRENT MINUTES

Friday, May 31st, 2013

Yesterday's strong gold market (silver did not keep up with gold's pace) seems to have turned several 'on the fence' analysts bullish.  Regrettably, I have my doubts that the rally to near $1,420 was a solid turning point.  Instead, I believe that gold has more 'work' to do before a potent trend to the upside . . . Read Article

Wednesday, May 29th, 2013

It's not a true earthquake - yet - but, quite possibly; it is a minor tremor in the great scheme of things.  I am referring to recent moves on the interest rate front which could be an indication that all may not be well looking forward on the economic scene and prudent investors had better take note of a growing potential change in this all-important economic indicator.. Read Article

Friday, May 24th, 2013

Every so often, particularly at times when it appears the underlying direction of both social and economic developments are subject to possible rapid changes in direction, it is worthwhile to step back and note those influences which we believe are of great importance in our overall analysis of the precious metals markets.  This is just such a tie. . Read Article

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

What has happened to the presumed high morality of our politicians and public servants?  It seems we are being inundated with stories of special IRS audits, widening tales of unauthorized and even illegal eavesdropping by public officials against 'non-obedient' news media; unexplained (and unexplainable) payments coming out of Canada's Prime Minister's office to help a favoured politician wiggle out of a hefty repayment requirement; a Canadian opposition party leader now suspected of failing to notify police about an offer to bribe politicians, etc. etc.. Read Article

Tuesday, May 21st, 2013

Charts are sure funny things given that sometimes they work well but at other times they can lead market participants far astray.  In my opinion, during the recent past, the gold chart has been providing valid trading signals and perhaps the clearest recent signal is now evident . . . Read Article

Friday, May 17th, 2013

Well, another Friday and another day of watching stock markets rise, precious metals markets fall and president Obama becoming more deeply embroiled within numerous controversies.  One can only wonder what the new week will bring!.  Read Article

Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

Where did all the good news come from?  Quite suddenly, the world in general and America in particular is being bombarded with a barrage of good news and that could be one of the primary reasons for the negative performance of precious metals during the past several months.  Let's take a look . . .  Read Article

Monday, May 13th, 2013

It seems that almost every time we look at productions from the financial media, we see nothing but a parade of games, games and more games.  The latest version appears to have taken a particularly devilish turn and follows a path of predicting dire financial reports and then, when they turn out to be only moderately bad, markets rally because the results were not as terrible as had been forecast.. Read Article

Monday, May 6th, 2013

How quickly we forget! During our recent driving trip to Washington State, my wife and I were able to buy gasoline in the city of Yakima at the (now) astonishingly low price of $3.199 per US gallon. Compared to the recent past, that is a genuine bargain, but when we look at the long term chart of the contract price of gas, it is easy to observe the ravages of inflation over time. Read Article

Thursday, May 2nd, 2013

Greetings from beautiful Val d’Or, Quebec where I am scheduled to visit Balmoral Resources’ properties today (Thursday).  We will be updating their “Company Reports” website section as soon as possible. Val d’Or is in the heart of one of Canada’s most prolific mining districts and I am looking forward to the visit.. Read Article

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

When it comes to precious metals price movements, it seems there are two distinct patterns; either price changes are coming fast and furious such as two weeks ago when we observed dramatic declines - or they seem to change at a proverbial snail's pace.  During the past week or so, the latter has been the case as prices recovered to the $1,450-1,485 range and now appear to be `marking time`. Read Article

Friday, April 26th, 2013

Several potentially important developments are worthy of comment.  Most particularly, we note a strong rally in gold over the past few days, one which could turn the technical picture around - if it continues.  Read Article

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

Metals markets are once again showing some modest strength this morning and the debate seems to be focused on whether the past two weeks' trading represents a renewed bull market to the upside, or merely a correction within a short-to-intermediate negative trend.  As noted below, I believe the short term outlook may still be perilous for metals bulls, but developments are taking place which might provide the background for an eventual resurgence of the group.  Timing is the most important question at hand.  Read Article

Monday, April 22nd, 2013

When it comes to gold, is it really time to be singing "Happy Days are Here Again?"  After all, gold has just put on a solid early morning rally which saw the price hit as high as $1,440, up by a full $115 from the panic low of early last week.  However, when we look at the daily chart of gold, the picture might not be all that rosy - aside from short term, speculative trading activities. Read Article

Friday, April 19th, 2013

On a personal note, this has been a rather dreadful week.  First, like all other gold advocates and investors, I had to endure a rather difficult market week, to put things bluntly.  Then, as if by some divine commandment to make matters worse, my computer system broke down and is in the process of being brought back to life, hopefully to be returned to me later today. Read Article

Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

Due to computer issues, the Melman Minute will not be available today.  Schedule will resume on Friday.

Monday, April 15th, 2013

The numbers which we are witnessing this morning relating to precious metals investments are staggering - and, regrettably, they are severely to the downside.  As this is written early in the trading day gold's latest range is from $1,382-85 while silver has fallen to about $23.40 - down by more almost $3.00 per ounce.  Crude Oil and Copper are also declining, adding to weakness in the entire commodity sector.  Read Article

Friday, April 12th, 2013

If a picture - or chart - is worth a 'thousand words', then on occasion two pictures - or two charts - could be worth even more.  I believe this is one of those times.  Please note the following two charts on gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Read Article

Wednesday, April 10th, 2013

If anyone still harboured any remaining doubts about the Obama Administration's primary philosophical focus, they could be put to rest thanks to the emphasis put forward by new Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew during his just-concluded trip to visit Europe's economic leadership.  During the visit, Lew made it abundantly clear that the Obama team remained strong advocates of growing economies . . .Read Article

Monday, April 8th, 2013

When the family doctor reviews your medical records and decides there is reason for serious concern about your health, then it is normally wise to pay some real attention.  Well, in the metals world, we are now receiving just such information - both technical and fundamental - from "Dr. Copper."  First, let's look at the technical picture.  Read Article

Friday, April 5th, 2013

Many of us with a few years under our belts can well remember the folk-singing, flower-girl years of Haight-Ashbury, mass anti-Vietnam war demonstrations and a prevailing counter-culture when one of the most familiar song lyrics went, "Where have all the flowers gone?"  Modern-day economists, studying very recent jobs reports in the USA, Canada and Europe, might instead be wondering,  Read Article

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013

Quite candidly, seldom if ever have I witnessed a time span such as the present era in metals analysis during the past forty-odd years.  On the one hand, in my opinion, the fundamental case for a powerful and long-lasting gold and silver bull market appears sounder than ever.  Read Article

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013

Given that we are strong advocates for the precious metals values versus fiat currencies, particularly from the individual liberty point of view, we are somewhat disappointed to find metals markets falling this morning with gold down by almost $20 in  early trading and silver now priced below $28.00 per ounce.   Read Article

Thursday, March 28th, 2013

I can say without possibility of contradiction that on a personal basis, it is pure delight to be back in a metropolitan area after battling poor roads, tropical heat, various lizards and numerous flying critters in the hinterlands of Cambodia where I have been visiting Angkor Gold’s Cambodian holdings – even if that particular metropolitan area, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, is 13,000 kilometers from home.  Read Article

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

Most Americans, Canadians and other nationals seem to have an inherent trust in what they read, particularly what has been put down on paper.  In a memorable scene from the famous movie, "Sergeant York", the future hero is making a deal with a local merchant who tells him, "Let's put that down in writin'." Read Article

Monday, March 18th, 2013

One of the first lessons we learn as we move from childhood into adulthood is that the world is full of unpleasant surprises and the citizenry of the island nation of Cyprus sure got one over the weekend, a surprise which is roiling financial and precious metals markets across the globe. Read Article

Friday, March 15th, 2013

It frequently amazes me how several stories on a given day can tie in with each other under a single general subject topic.  This morning has been just that kind of day. Read Article

Wednesday, March 13th, 2013

Please forget the old mantra, "Go west young man, go west."  For many Canadian junior miners, the new guidance is to look south and the country of Mexico is an area of particularly intense . . . Read Article

Monday, March 11th, 2013

As if the mining world did not have a sufficient array of current problems, the international mining community has yet another dilemma with which it must contend - and this one only affects . . . Read Article

Friday, March 8th, 2013

Those of us with lengthy memories can easily recall Democratic Party conventions where one melody, "Happy Days are Here Again", was played over and over.  Well, after the release of this morning's February job figures by the Department of Labour, I can well imagine that supporters of the President and his party are once again in a joyous mood.   Read Article

Thursday, March 7th, 2013

It is a pleasure to be back in the familiar setting of my writing studio here on beautiful Vancouver Island after recent travels to Chicago and Toronto for a brace of speaking engagements.  In reviewing this morning's headlines, it is clear that markets are still focusing in on the surge of the Dow Jones Industrials to their historic high earlier this week and attempting to determine the future ramifications of that burst.   Read Article

Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

Due to a combination of computer problems at my hotel in Toronto as well as a tight travel schedule, we are revising this week's schedule to include full Melman Reports on Thursday and Friday.

However, there are two important observations to note:  Read Article

Monday, March 4th, 2013

Greetings from the world’s largest annual mining convention, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) annual gathering in Toronto each March.  Not only does it combine the attributes of a major financial convention such as Cambridge House – Vancouver or a producers and suppliers gathering such as the large “Round-Up” convention, but it is also the favoured meeting place for the international mining community with approximately 125 foreign nations present along with more than 420 correspondents from around the globe who have received media credentials.  Read Article

Friday, March 1st, 2013

As I watched the world wake up this morning, one of the first sayings that came to mind was the one attributed to former New York Yankees catcher, Yogi Berra, who famously uttered, “It’s Déjà Vu all over again!”  Also, I was brought back in time to late December, 1999.  Read Article

Monday, February 25th, 2013

Quite frequently, one of the truisms we learn over time is that the most unexpected events do in fact occur, and such occurrences are not at all rare.  For example, who in the early 1980s could have imagined both the impending destruction of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent end of the seemingly all-powerful Soviet Union as a functioning nation?  Read Article

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

Anyone who believes that market moves are simply random without any identifiable interconnectedness might consider re-evaluating that opinion.  Please consider the following sequence of charts depicting market actions. Read Article

Wednesday, February 20th, 2013

Once again, I have turned to my six-inch thick dictionary for yet another definition, this time for the word "dichotomy", which I learned is defined as, "a division into two parts; in logic, division of a class into two opposing subclasses."  Therefore, I feel comfortable in using the word "dichotomy" to describe present action in the precious metals markets. Read Article

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013

It’s back to work again this morning following the Canadian Family Day and American Presidents’ Day market holidays and, while I wish I could report good news in the precious metals markets that simply would not be the accurate case.  Read Article

Friday, February 15th, 2013

First, gold has dropped sharply, momentarily falling below the $1,600 level and presently standing at the lowest price since this past August, thereby turning the short term trend decisively to the downside.  Read Article

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013

Well, President Obama’s important speech number two passed into history with the delivery of his fifth State of the Union Address last night.  Somewhat regrettably, at least from a free-market, individual liberty point of view, it is my opinion that this speech, like the President’s Second Inaugural Address, was slanted steeply toward the political left.  Read Article

Monday, February 11th, 2013

Here we go again!  Seemingly out of nowhere, the gold price is falling sharply this morning, down in early trading by almost $20 per ounce to under the $1,650 mark.  Once again we are faced with a non-confirmation between what is apparently favourable news for the precious metals as opposed to the actual gold and silver markets day-to-day performance.  Read Article

Friday, February 8th, 2013

One of my favourite movies during the past decade or two has been “A Few Good Men”, which chronicles the battle of a defence lawyer (played by Tom Cruise) to get two military defendants acquitted of murder charges.  He is opposed by a pair of officers (played by Jack Nicholson and Keefer Sutherland) who use every dirty tactic in the book to oppose them.  At one stage Cruise’s character exclaims in frustration, “The hits just keep on coming!”  Read Article

Wednesday, February 6th, 2013

I have had the pleasure of living in British Columbia since the summer of 1996 - almost 17 years - and during that time, I have come to one conclusion above all others, at least in terms of the province’s political life.  To put things bluntly, political history in British Columbia has been more than slightly unusual.  Where many jurisdictions go through moderate changes from time to time, in British Columbia, very little in its political existence can be called ‘moderate’.  Read Article

Monday, February 4th, 2013

“CAPITULATE” - ‘to give up; to stop resisting’.  If recent comments by Republican leadership are to believed, capitulation to the inevitable is now becoming the dominant GOP strategy and, if this is true, then I would suggest that ‘old-fashioned’ goals such as diminished government spending, balanced budgets and a return to some form of ‘hard money’ can safely be stashed away into the American political attic for many months or years into the future.  Read Article

Friday, February 1st, 2013

Let’s have a little fun with numbers.  The 2000 US Census showed a total American population of 281,424,000 and the 2010 Census showed 308,745,000 - a gain of 27,321,000 in ten years, or an annual rate of approximately 2,730,000 per year.  This reduces to around a 227,000 population increase per month, assuming America’s population is continuing to grow at roughly the 2000-10 rate.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 30th, 2013

If one is looking for thrills and spills, it is no longer necessary to travel to a giant amusement park seeking a roller coaster or some such amusements.  All one needs to do is to keep your eye on the bounding ball called the price of gold.  Please note on the accompanying chart which shows that since mid-December, gold has fallen from 1700 to 1636; risen to 1696; fallen to 1625; risen to 1698; fallen to 1653 and is rising once again, having traded at close to 1680 earlier this morning.  Read Article

Monday, January 28th, 2013

Greetings from Downtown Vancouver where I am once again attending a major mining convention, this one being the "AME Round-Up" also held each January in the beautiful west coast city.  However, unlike the just-concluded Cambridge House gathering held January 20-21 which is primarily geared to providing a venue for mining companies to provide investment information on their projects, this convention is geared primarily to the productive and technical segments of the mining industry.  Read Article

Friday, January 25th, 2013

Watching the gold market over the past five days has been particularly frustrating since just one week ago, it appeared the yellow metal was finally ready to break above resistance near $1,700 and perhaps head decisively higher.  However, that is not the way events developed.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

If I was going to be completely candid - which can be a dangerous sport in the newsletter writing trade - I would suggest that the President’s Second Inaugural Address was written with an eye toward truly validating his re-election.  By that statement, I am inferring to the possibility that some might consider his re-election to be tainted because it relied almost totally on a highly partisan minority vote without which the President would have been trounced in a most humiliating manner.  Read Article

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

All the exhibition booths have been torn down and the staffs have been sent on to other duties.  The speakers have spoken, the stories have been told and now all that remains of the Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference of January 20-21 at the Vancouver Convention Center are memories of knowledge gained and business contacts made.  Read Article

Friday, January 18th, 2013

Due to the necessity to prepare for the forthcoming Cambridge House Resource Conference in Vancouver this Sunday-Monday as well as the requirement to meet pressing publication deadlines, this will be an abbreviated Melman Minute.. Read Article

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

Every so often, I come across a written argument presented so powerfully that it is difficult to ignore.  One such contribution was just authored by Princeton economics professor Alan S. Blinder who was also once Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  Blinder, to put it bluntly, lays out some of . . . Read Article

Monday, January 14th, 2013

To paraphrase the words of Winston Churchill, “The battle of the Fiscal Cliff is now behind us.  The battle of the Statutory Debt Limit is about to begin” and while news sources will undoubtedly focus on this new struggle, we should also note two other dates of importance which now lie immediately ahead;  Read Article

Friday, January 11th, 2013

One of the earliest lessons learned in life is that conversations relating to either religion or politics are most likely to generate controversy and even open expressions of animosity.  Nevertheless, I believe that in order to substantiate predictions for the outlook of precious metals prices, a discussion of basic economic philosophy is in order.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 9th, 2013

Throughout human history, it would appear evident that the term “race” (other than referring to racial matters) would appear to be a positive exercise to achieve positive results, as in a ‘race’ to the fastest running time, the highest academic score, the greatest profit or other similar outcomes.  However, in terms of international currency markets, we are now observing the strange phenomenon of a “race to the bottom” in several countries.  Read Article

Monday, January 7th, 2013

For most Canadians and many Americans, this has indeed been a weekend for rejoicing as the threat of losing the entire National Hockey League (NHL) season has apparently now been relegated to ancient history.  Fans can rejoice, stadium and arena workers can return to their jobs and pub owners can look forward to increased revenues.  Happiness abounds! Read Article

Friday, January 4th, 2013

Sometimes it is true that good news can come in what appears to be the form of bad news.  We may indeed have an occurrence of that sort today.  While the gold market has plunged sharply, hitting a new four-month low in early trading, the XAU mining share index has failed to follow sharply to the downside and, in fact, is showing only slight weakness.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

Wow, talk about opening the New Year of 2013 with a bang!  Barely minutes into the year, the American Congress finally provided a ‘solution’ to the ‘fiscal cliff’ which had been frightening the American public into believing the end of the end of their economic world might be at hand.  Read Article

Monday, December 31st, 2012

In just a few more hours, the year of 2012 A.D. will be no more and will begin to fade into memory.  Many of us, I suspect, will be quite happy to see the old year pass away into oblivion, given its array of uncertainties, disappointments and fears, particularly those which relate to our world of ... Read Article

Friday, December 28th, 2012

Well, the year 2012 is about to make its exit and for many in the mining industry, the demise of the past year cannot occur too soon.  While there are some exceptions, for many of us it has not been a pleasurable twelve-month.  Read Article

Friday, December 21st, 2012

Just when I was beginning to believe that the general financial information background and actual market performances were never going to coincide, we actually have a ray of consistent logic on our hands in the lumber market.  Given low interest rates, improvement in consumer income and a new report that the inventory of “for sale” homes was at a multi-year low, it would make sense that the demand for lumber would be on the rise and, voila, please note that it is behaving just that way.  Read Article

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

First things first.  While our focus remains fixed on economic and political matters and how they affect our world of precious and base metals, we cannot help but express shock and horror at the recent tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut where twenty young children and six adults were shot dead at their school – supposedly an island of safety.  The loss of so many young lives at one time shocks us to the very base of our sensibilities and all we can do is offer condolences to family and friends of those who have been lost.  Read Article

Friday, December 14th, 2012

One of the most concepts in financial analysis in recent years is the fact that many apparently important market moves have had absolutely no staying power, but rather 'turn on a dime' and reverse themselves without warning.  Three examples of late come to mind.  Read Article

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

First, should several juniors fail, their projects will become re-cycled into the inventories of existing companies or new start-ups, providing opportunities for new funding and renewed progress in their development.  Second, many felt that like the horrendous mining share down-moves of 2008-09, "this too shall pass" and be replaced by better times, particularly given the host of problems being faced by society at large and the propensity of many to turn to gold and silver as hedges against financial calamity.  Read Article

Monday, December 10th, 2012

Statistics released over the weekend brought home a stark reality:  America has little more than two weeks to face two important crises square on.  One is the much-discussed "fiscal cliff" while the other onrushing problem - and perhaps the greater of the two - remains the rapidly approaching Treasury Statutory Debt Limit figure of $16.394 trillion.  Read Article

Friday, December 7th, 2012

The monthly American Department of Labor jobs report for November was released early this morning and it carried seemingly welcome news.  The number of new jobs created amounted to a much larger than expected 146,000 and, more stunningly, the Unemployment Rate for November fell to 7.7%, the lowest number since 2008.  Read Article

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

Somehow the old line that "Nero dithered while Rome burned" keeps coming to mind when I observe the lack of any definitive progress regarding America's two onrushing economic crisis points; the 'fiscal cliff' and the impending necessity to raise the National Debt Limit.  We see political posturing on both counts.  We do NOT see anything resembling hard and realistic solutions being proffered.  Read Article

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

One of the most useful tools in financial analysis has been the concept of "non-confirmation" as it can serve as an alert that underlying conditions simply do not correspond with price actions, given what might have been expected based on public knowledge, general perception and other market indicators.  Read Article

Friday, November 30th, 2012

As the world heads toward various types of fiscal and political traumas, the one impression we are continually receiving is "the more things change, the more they stay the same" - and please remember that many believe the way things previously developed is the reason why the world is in such perilous shape  Here is why I use that phrase.  Read Article

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

More often than not, there seems to be a genuine 'disconnect' between the world of economic data and the performance of financial markets.  A comparison between the 'conversation ' relating to China's economic performance and market action on the Shanghai Stock Exchange offers us a clear example.  Read Article

Monday, November 26th, 2012

One of the most important political 'footballs' has clearly been affected by the results of the November Presidential Election.  We are referring to the entire question of man-made global warming - or more politely, 'climate change'.  There were distinct differences of philosophy on display with Romney generally reluctant to accept the concept while President Obama was much more determined to 'save the planet' by aggressive regulatory actions.  Read Article

Friday, November 23rd, 2012

Many people have grown up on two sayings regarding politicians' collective attitudes regarding taxation. One is "If it lives, moves or breathes - tax it!"  Read Article

Wednesday, November 21st, 2012

A strange feature of market activity during the past few sessions has been the almost lack of impact major news events have had on trading.  An excellent example was provided this morning when news hit that terrorists had exploded a bomb on a bus in Tel Aviv, injuring more than 30 passengers.  Read Article

Monday, November 19th, 2012

If there has been one particularly unusual feature of the world's various markets during the past couple of years or so, it is how swiftly they can change from optimism to pessimism and back to optimism once again - and how coordinated various markets have been during these phases.  Read Article

Friday, November 16th, 2012

From the "watch what I do, not what I say" department:  For several weeks, we have been hearing that China's economic contraction is not as bad as had been feared and that the new Communist leaders will use their savvy to restore prosperity and rapid expansion of their economy.  What investors are doing is a far different matter. Read Article

Wednesday, November 14th, 2012

Sometimes political rhetoric and political reality can point in different directions.  A case at hand is the current mess facing Democratic lawmakers in America.  While they offer solutions for the 'fiscal cliff' containing both tax revenue increases and spending reductions, political reality may force . . . Read Article

Monday, November 12th, 2012

One of the benefits of reading numerous financial reports is that occasionally one can find a combination of such articles which confirms an already-established thesis.  This morning's press releases yielded two stories which, in our mind at least, confirmed the thesis that once government gets it hands on a new source of revenue and incorporates that revenue into its spending pattern,  Read Article

Friday, November 9th, 2012

If you had been using the services of a presumably reliable and talented physician, but found that virtually all the medicines he recommended were making you feel worse, not better, you might consider changing physicians or at least telling him to change some of the medicines or dosages. Read Article

Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Talk about "déjà vu"!  Americans woke up early Tuesday morning with a Democratic President; a Senate with a narrow Democratic lead and a House with a strong Republican majority.  They went to bed late Tuesday night with a Democratic President; a Senate with a narrow Democratic lead and a House with a strong Republican majority. Read Article

Monday, November 5th, 2012

Tomorrow is Election Day and I'm certain multitudes will welcome that event as it will finally resolve the great question of who will control the American government for the next four years and it will also put an end to the avalanche of television advertising for all things political - at least for a while. Read Article

Friday, November 2nd, 2012

On the last evening of the "Silver Summit" in Spokane, WA, a "Speakers and Sponsors" dinner was held.  It was a very enjoyable evening, capped off by the emcee asking for a spontaneous prediction from the speakers regarding their outlook for the upcoming American election, Read Article

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Halloween eve will make its annual appearance tonight and while the kiddies may simply focus on their fun and treats, adults around the world have some real 'ghosts and goblins' to worry about.  Read Article

Monday, October 29th, 2012

Thanks to that dandy storm, Hurricane Sandy, securities markets which have their home in New York City are shut down for the day, sharply limiting both trading volume and the flow of information into the financial news marketplace.  Regardless, we will struggle on as best we can this morning.  Read Article

Friday, October 26th, 2012

It was my sincere pleasure to participate in a five-member panel discussion late on Thursday afternoon at the Silver Summit Convention in Spokane, Washington.  Audience participation was excellent and the exchange of information between panelists and members of the audience was. . .  Read Article

Thursday, October 25th, 2012

It is a sincere pleasure to be back in Spokane, Washington- my home city for more than 10 years between the mid 1980s and 1996.  If the enthusiasm shown during our preliminary panel discussion held yesterday afternoon at the “Silver Summit” convention is any indication, interest in mining remains at a very high level here in Washington’s “Inland Empire.”  Read Article

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

There is a most interesting coincidence when we compare the flow of news events for the past few weeks and the somewhat dramatic fall in precious metals prices in the same time frame.  As the fortunes of the Obama campaign have ebbed with the Benghazi events, the prices for gold and silver . . .Read Article

Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

Well, date number Two is in the books and for those hoping for a decisive victory by either side, disappointment was likely the order of the day and the same may be said for those hoping for some sort of discussion of serious economic philosophic alternatives.  Read Article

Monday, October 15th, 2012

Greetings from sunny California, land of sunshine, beaches and, for various reasons, what I might refer to as epitomizing Milton’s ancient text, “Paradise Lost”.  Please allow me to explain. Read Article

Wednesday, October 10th, 2012

For want of a better expression, I happen to believe that the Obama campaign may have just stepped into a pile of "Big Bird" poop.  In an apparent attempt to gain political favour from Moms and youngsters, Obama has lit upon a remark made by Romney during the initial debate that he would end the subsidy to PBS as one means of reducing government expenditures.  Obama morphed that remark into a specific attack against "Big Bird" of the popular "Sesame Street" program.  Read Article

Monday, October 9th, 2012

One of the most unusual repetitive patterns we have seen over the past couple of years is a period of heightened activity followed by a period of almost perfect calm.  We offer several charts related to important investment categories to support the hypothesis that we are now in a similar period.  Read Article

Friday, October 5th, 2012

According to the general consensus of opinion, round one of the Presidential Debates of 2012 came off as the "puncher" versus the "punching bag", with Romney in the former role and Obama as the latter.  According to many pundits, the President's performance was woefully sad.  Read Article

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

Well, tonight's the night when the political wars really heat up.  From 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM PDT (9:00 - 10:30 EDT; 8:00 - 9:30 CDT) President Obama and "wanna-be" Presidential Candidate Romney finally square off in a face-to-face debate with the subject being domestic matters.  Two more debates are scheduled to take place on October 16 and 22.   Read Article

Monday, October 1st, 2012

It is beginning to appear that they have thrown in the towel.  The "they" in this case is the forces for austerity which appeared for a while to be holding the upper hand in negotiations to restore European fiscal matters toward some semblance of long-term sanity.  One of the reasons may very well be that austerity advocates in Italy, Spain and Greece may have started to fear for their very lives!  Read Article

Friday, September 28th, 2012

The chart of gold is presenting us with unusually clear upside targets to watch for, as illustrated by the six month chart.  These are “1,800” in the short term; the previous historic high levels of $1,930-40 and, then, as a major psychological goal, a breakout above the $2,000 level.  In our opinion at TMR, the general flow of international political and economic continues to favor positive action in the gold chart.   Read Article

Thursday, September 27th, 2012

Unfortunately, this will have to be an abbreviated message for the following reason.  Anyone who doubts the fact that many people are still intensely interested in the mining world in particular and the well-being of the world at large should spend part of today and tomorrow at the Sheraton Conference Center, home of the Cambridge House Resource Investors Conference.   Read Article

Monday, September 24th, 2012

"D"-Day is just one week away, referring to the first debate between Romney and Obama which is now scheduled for October 3.  We would suggest that this debate may become the single most important factor in deciding the upcoming Presidential election.   Read Article

Friday, September 21st, 2012

A CLUMSY ANALOGY - Something which I believe might be of interest occurred to me during my recent trip to Newfoundland - namely that there is a great comfort in the familiar.  In my case, it is delightful to be back in my writing studio with its books, financial publications, computer set-up and convenient office supplies as opposed to hotel rooms, sometimes questionable Internet connections, etc.  I believe the same is also true of societies at large.   Read Article

Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

While delegates to the Resource Investors Forum here in St. John’s, Newfoundland raise such issues as building railroads into resource-rich areas, or fighting to ease mining regulations, the rest of the world seems determined to carry on or even accelerate some of the trends which are beginning to cause worldwide concern.   Read Article

Tuesday, September 18th, 2012

Well, one can only wonder if the Romney campaign simply wants to hand a renewal of the presidency to Obama on  a platter as Mitt himself has been caught in what appears to have been a blunder.   Read Article

Friday, September 14th, 2012

Well, it appears to be no exaggeration to state that all hell has broken loose in three directions at one and the same time: economic intervention by the Fed, a dramatic increase in international terrorism and very important news on the political/US election front - and all three combined are having a huge impact on precious metals, financial markets, currency markets and virtually all commodity markets.   Read Article

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

Silver and gold are sure playing true to form during the recent precious metals rallies.  It has long been regarded as a sound premise that during such rallies, silver outperforms gold on the upside, while in bear markets, silver under-performs gold.  Things have sure worked out that way of late.   Read Article

Monday, September 10th, 2012

If there was one lasting impression left behind from the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, NC last week, it was that the belief in Keynesian economics remains widespread in America.  In fact, one might assume that faith in Keynesianism was so strong that few people, Republican or Democrats, seriously consider any alternative.   Read Article

Friday, September 7th, 2012

Well, both conventions are now over and done with and the real campaigning for the American presidency begins.  From my personal point of view, I can't wait for serious discussions of genuine political and economic philosophy to begin - because I believe they sure were not part of either convention.  Read Article

Wednesday, September 5th, 2012

I hate to sound somewhat sarcastic, but after listening to the Democratic Convention's keynote address delivered by San Antonio's Mayor Julian Castro, one might believe his party's motto is to become, with apologies to Winston Churchill, "Never have so many taken so much from so few." Read Article

Tuesday, September 4th, 2012

Words can be wonderfully descriptive at times and one of my favourites is "Crescendo."  Our six-inch-thick Webster's Unabridged Dictionary defines the word as meaning   Read Article

Friday, August 31st, 2012

Well, here I go again with numbers, numbers and more numbers.  You see, I like numeric information as it allows for quantifiable analysis, unlike impressions gathered from 'feelings', impassioned pleas, and the like.  All of this relates to what I might refer to as "A tale of two speeches."  Read Article

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

The republican National Convention in Tampa, FL finally got down to real business last night with proceedings highlighted by speeches from Mitt Romney's wife, Ann, and the keynote address by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  Read Article

Monday, August 27th, 2012

Although slightly delayed by the arrival of Hurricane Isaac, the Republican National Convention is now set to get officially underway tomorrow at 2:00 PM EDT in Tampa, Florida.  Now that it has been truncated to three days instead of four, it should be a rather fast-paced event compared to normal.  However, aside from pace, we at The Melman Report are much more concerned about political substance.   Read Article

Friday, August 24th, 2012

While any market technician (chart analyst) must admit that such analysis contains some genuine degree of uncertainty, I hold to the opinion that at various times, a chart can spot potential dramatic turns early in their development.  I offer two charts to illustrate the point, namely the US Dollar Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

Well, it may be premature to assert that "Happy Days are Here Again" in terms of the price of gold, but nevertheless, we cannot help but note that the chart of the yellow metal has made a significant short term breakout to the upside.  Read Article

Monday, August 20th, 2012

Last Friday, we noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually beginning to approach its highest price on record - just above 14,200 - despite what appears to be an irresolvable list of serious problems.  This might suggest that the problems do not really exist or rather that investors are willing to look beyond today's situation toward a much more optimistic future.  Read Article

Friday, August 17th, 2012

"If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all!"  So went the words of a famous Country & Western hit of the 1960s and I cannot help but wonder if many mining executives aren't wondering if there wasn't some truth to those lyrics when applied to today's mining news background.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

Of all the influences on the price of both gold and silver, I believe the most powerful of all, for want of a better term, is 'visible' inflation.  In other words, until the public can actually see a pattern of rising prices in their day-to-day lives, academic discussions of monetary inflation are unlikely to have any major impact.  Read Article

Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

A funny thing seems to be happening on the way to the "low interest rate paradise" advocated by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the world's three leading fiat money-creating agencies.  The financial markets appear to be developing a contrary opinion.  Read Article

Friday, August 10th, 2012

One noteworthy event this morning has been a new show of strength in the short-term gold chart.  Please note that gold appears to have broken through short term resistance just above the $1,620 mark   Read Article

Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

Some of us 'oldsters' out there might easily recall a unique style of news casting from a very special person which took place over several decades.  The gent's name was Paul Harvey and his program was entitled "The Rest of the Story."   Read Article

Tuesday, August 7th, 2012

As a young lad growing up in the aftermath of WW2, I remember the lyrics of an immensely popular military song left over from WW1.  The relevant lines were:  "What's the use of worrying, it never was worthwhile, so pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and smile, smile, smile."  Read Article

Friday, August 4th, 2012

One of the most eagerly-awaited statistics within the financial realm is the monthly release by the US Department of Labour of the preceding month's employment data, and this month was no exception.  The figures for July were published on time this morning, and, as a result of that data, financial markets are now enjoying substantial rallies. Read Article

Thursday, August 2nd, 2012

Despite all the talk about Europe, when it comes to demand for mined metals, particularly the base metals such as copper, nickel, lead and zinc; China remains the single largest buyer of such materials and the combination of two charts is giving us great concern regarding fundamental demand at this time. Read Article

Monday, July 30th, 2012

Well, for a change, there is very little of exciting substance in the financial media regarding new traumas in Europe or the Euro or the various central banks around the globe or even politicians making bold statements of one sort or another.  In fact, it is strangely quiet out there.  Read Article

Friday, July 27th, 2012

It has been said that the two concepts which can be utterly relied upon are "death and taxes."  Well, perhaps that old saying needs a revision by including a third maxim:  "When financial troubles appear to be inevitable, count on some government or international financial body to make a supportive statement."  It has become a virtual mathematical certainty. Read Article

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

I had a most interesting conversation yesterday with a long-time friend whose opinions on economics have proven to be of great value over time.  He pointed out a most interesting fact about the psychology underlying current markets, Read Article

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

To state that during the past several months markets can change direction quickly is simply to state the obvious, but even within that context, the reversals that have occurred over the past few market days are startling indeed. Read Article

Friday, July 20th, 2012

Despite the flood of reports being received on an almost daily basis which are designed to reassure the world that the Spanish crisis is being properly handled, I prefer to apply the old axiom, "watch what I do, not what I say."  Read Article

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

For those of you with an elemental dislike for things numerical or mathematical, then I might suggest reading the following might cause mental nosebleed, because numbers are unavoidably at the heart of this discussion.  For myself, I can only say that numerical calculation offers one of the true delights . . . Read Article

Monday, July 16th, 2012

No bands stuck up a Sousa march, no fireworks went off, no parades were held to mark the occasion, but something of truly great significance occurred early today.  The rate paid by the US government to borrow long term - 30 years to be exact - just fell to the lowest level in history, touching 2.517% during the first hour of this morning's trading.  Read Article

Friday, July 13th, 2012

I thought Friday the 13th was supposed to be an omen of bad luck, but watching the financial and commodity markets this morning is hardly consistent with that superstition as everything from securities to metals to grains to petroleum has opened higher, not lower.  Read Article

Wednesday, July 11th, 2012

Many of us have hidden prejudices, to use the word in its proper form.  We "pre-judge" based on what we believe to be sound reasoning.  Although the word seems to be used most often in a racial context, there are actually many applications for the term.  I am certainly guilty of some forms of 'prejudice', particularly when it involves interpreting the biases of many media institutions and personnel.  Read Article

Monday, July 9th, 2012

After more than 40 years of examining the flow of economic data, I have grown someone immune to becoming too startled over any particular number which might appear, but that complacency was shattered by the revelation of a renewed increase in the rate of accumulation of debt by America's government.  Read Article

Friday, July 6th, 2012

As a lifelong baseball fan, one of the first poems I had the pleasure of enjoying was "Casey At the Bat".  Aficionados of the sport may remember the last line of the poem which goes, "There is no joy in Mudville, mighty Casey has struck out!"  To paraphrase that legendary poem, there is no joy in Democratic camps in Washington as the eagerly-awaited monthly jobs figure turned out to be a real downer.  Read Article

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

One of my favourite 'contrarian' maxims is the old British saying, "Nothing is confirmed until officially denied."  I have found that this concept has been particularly true in relation to the growing European monetary crisis as one nation after another has first declared itself to be fiscally sound only to shortly afterward turn to begging the international community for assistance.  Read Article

Tuesday, July 3rd, 2012

Two events which occurred during the past few days appear to carry unusually important significance regarding the future of the precious metals - as well as to the general society at large.  I am referring to the latest "rescue" news out of Europe and the "Obama Care" decision of the Supreme Court.  Read Article

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

Move over Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, there is now another member of your "vital request for an urgent bailout" club.  Cyprus made it official overnight that they were formally declaring the need for a financial rescue by the European Union for their country's banks and their nation's budgetary problems.  Read Article

Monday, June 25th, 2012

Greetings from New Brunswick Province in eastern Canada where I am taking part in a tour of Great Atlantic Resource Corp’s (formerly “Greenlight Resources”) projects in this mining-supportive jurisdiction  While many investors’ awareness of mining activity in the province is slight,  Read Article

Friday, June 22nd, 2012

Life during the past few months has certainly been most interesting, particularly for those of us who believe in logical thought patterns as we begin to wonder if the rest of the world is going slightly bonkers.  Here is some of what I mean.  Read Article

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

Every so often, an economics report comes into our hands which, after digesting its contents, is able to cause some genuine and serious concern.  One such report is a study in Barron's Magazine relating to the onrushing sea of difficulties associated with the rapid aging of America's population.  Read Article

Monday, June 18th, 2012

When someone is immensely popular for over 400 years, there must be a reason. In the case of William Shakespeare, I believe his enduring influence is attributable to an amazing ability to describe important human attributes in as few words as possible and I would offer two such examples ...  Read Article

Friday, June 15th, 2012

In brief, as of 8:00 AM PDT, financial markets in both countries are rising on pledges by the international monetary authorities that they are ready to stand by and help, no matter what the outcome of Sunday's vote in Greece, as both the TSX Index and the Dow Industrials are ahead by about 60 points.  Read Article

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

Every once in a while it appears to be a worthwhile exercise to step back from the day-to-day vagaries of the marketplace and take a much longer look at trends.  At the present moment, gold is presenting a most interesting long term picture.  Read Article

Monday, June 11th, 2012

It is said that "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery."  If that is truly the case, then I just might find myself revelling in that situation.  Kindly allow me to explain.  Read Article

Wednesday, June 6th, 2012

Wisconsin voters went to the polls yesterday in their "recall" election and the results of their voting could have major implications for the upcoming November 2012 Presidential elections.  In short, they delivered a sharp rebuke to President Obama and the Democratic Party by... Read Article

Monday, June 4th, 2012

Greetings from the Cambridge House World Investment Conference being held in Vancouver, British Columbia, where the great question is whether the collective economies of planet Earth are headed for some sort of calamity. Read Article

Friday, June 1st, 2012

Well, the long-awaited May employment numbers were released at 5:30 AM PDT this morning and they were a shocker!  Job growth for the month came it at a puny 69,000, almost 100,000 below ... Read Article

Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

One of my literary heroes is the late Dr. Samuel Johnson who was made famous both by his own extensive eighteenth century writings - including the first major English dictionary - and James Boswell's famous book, "The Life of Samuel Johnson" which contained many quotes uttered by the great doctor.  Read Article

Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

One of our goals within the current general time frame is to watch for signs which might indicate that the precious metals group will be resuming the powerful bull market which we opine has been ongoing since very early in this century.  One of those signs would be an anomaly, a market action which appears to be inconsistent with other market actions.  One of those might be presently occurring.  Read Article

Friday, May 23rd, 2012

Even in this difficult time for many in the mining world, it is possible for an occasional ray of sunshine to break through.  That was our impression when we discovered that Ontario's left-leaning Premier, Dalton McGuinty, actually made a strong statement which indicated support for mining development.  Read Article

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

As a long-time pet fancier who has had a high level of affection for our feline friends, I am somewhat loathe to use a market expression which casts them in a negative sense, but the term "dead cat bounce" does indeed appear to be most appropriate to describe recent action in both securities and precious metals markets over the past few days.  Read Article

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

Political and economic philosophies are strange things.  It seems that advocates are so rabidly in favour of their own set of beliefs that they will fight to the death to confirm them, but then, in all strangeness, they seem willing to abandon those presumably deep-seated beliefs at the seeming drop of a hat.  Read Article

Friday, May 18th, 2012

Well, it was bound to happen sometime!  We are referring to the sudden, sharp rally in the precious metals over the past two market days following a prolonged period of weakness.  It is also worth noting that the mining share indexes snapped back powerfully as well.  As can be seen from the accompanying chart on gold, the yellow metal has rallied from just above $1535 to almost $1,600 in less than 48 hours.  Read Article

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

One of our goals at The Melman Report is to look for developments in market action which might indicate a change in general market direction.  We believe the chart below illustrates what may indeed be one such change.  Read Article

 Monday, May 14th, 2012

Quite suddenly, it is beginning to appear that the monetary debacle now building in Europe which threatens to engulf the entire international financial order is now moving ahead at a rapidly increasing pace.  In fact, a genuine crisis appears to be quite probable within one month. Read Article

Wednesday, May 9th, 2012

Many observers have offered the opinion that watching the growing litany of troubles afflicting the European economic system is like observing a "slow-motion crack-up."  Quite suddenly, the term "slow-motion" may no longer be appropriate.  Matters, in our opinion, are beginning to accelerate - Read Article

Monday, May 7th, 2012

Every once in a while, an election or series of elections take place which can have a particularly profound impact on the financial structure of both national and international societies.  It appears to us at TMR that the elections which took place over the past weekend in Read Article

Friday, May 4th, 2012

The big news this morning was the release of the latest jobs figures from the U.S. Department of Labor and they are striking, to say the least as they appear to emphasize the fact that the presumptive U.S. economic recovery may indeed be in jeopardy.   Read Article

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

Before looking at recent headlines and articles of interest, I think this would be an appropriate moment to re-state two of our guiding thoughts which lay behind our 2012 forecast of higher precious metals prices by year-end 2012.  Read Article

Monday, April 30th, 2012

After a bracing and enjoyable ocean cruise, it is good to be back in my writing studio once again, trying to make heads or tails out of the world's affairs, particularly as they relate to our world of precious and base metals mining.  Read Article

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012

Due to writing commitments, travel requirements and a long overdue vacation, "The Melman Minutes" will resume Monday April 30th.  Thank you for your readership.

Monday, April 9th, 2012

A new political firestorm appears to be brewing in America, just in time for the all-important November 2012 Presidential elections.  We are referring to the rapid growth in America's gross national debt which threatens to exceed the legal limit just prior to the elections.  This could force an unwelcome bitter debate which would take place before the voters trooped to the polls.  Read Article

Friday, April 6th, 2012

First, however, it is important to report that the latest U.S. jobs report which was released this morning for the month of March contained the bombshell news that the number of new jobs created that month was only 121,000, down sharply from the February figure of more than double that number.  Read Article

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012

One of our themes through the years has been the utter waste of most government economic regulations and rules.  We would much prefer to see the natural rules of economics become the preferred means of providing for society’s needs and desires since those take effect without cumbersome regulations and without the massive expenditures involved in hiring and maintaining armies of bureaucrats.. Read Article

Friday, March 30th, 2012

The United States Bureau of Economic News just reported that American workers total disposable income improved by $18.9 billion in February.  That sounds good until we learn . . .  Read Article

Thursday, March 29th, 2012

Once again the expression “déjà vu” comes to the forefront in our analysis of this morning’s events, repeating a pattern we have witnessed over and over again in recent years.  That pattern informs us that when news from Europe and/or Asia is predominantly negative,   Read Article

Monday, March 26th, 2012

Talk about a double-bind with which Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke must contend.  On the one hand, he must convince the public that the Fed's policies are working and, in order to satisfy political pressure, that the economy is becoming more robust.   Read Article

Friday, March 23rd, 2012

Anyone who believes that it doesn't really matter which political party wins elections might want to take a second look.  If they do so, they might realize that there is a genuine difference in emphasis between political parties and the policies they advocate.  Read Article

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012

After considering several alternatives regarding the US Federal Reserve Bank's two main Congressional delineated functions, I believe their future policy choices may ultimately wind up being between something similar to "heads you lose" and "tails you lose."   Read Article

Monday, March 19th, 2012

Part of our long-term positive predictions for the future of the precious metals relates to the concept of "head you win, tails you win."  By that we mean that gold and silver should perform well over time regardless of whether the world's economies achieve a high degree of relative prosperity or whether they descend into a new and deep recession as many are forecasting for late this year or early next.  Read Article

Friday, March 16th, 2012

The petroleum complex world has certainly moved front and center into the economic spotlight over the past few months and several recent developments suggest that we take a renewed look at just how important these events could be for our economic - and social - futures.  Read Article

Wednesday, March 14th, 2012

Market action this morning brings to mind the old saying, "Be careful what you wish for.  You may get exactly that."  Optimistic observers have been wishing for new American economic strength leading to financial market rallies.  That is what is taking place, but there is one accompanying move they may not like at all.

Read Article

Monday, March 12th, 2012

One of my favourite sayings is "Pay attention to what he DOES, not what he SAYS."  That same saying can be applied to our world of economics, particularly as it relates to what the financial leaders are SAYING about resolving the problems of Greece and what the actual bond markets are DOING in reaction to the latest series of machinations. Read Article

Friday, March 9th, 2012

Financial market optimists received a "shot in the arm" this morning when the new jobs figures for the month of February were announced by the U.S. Department of Labour showing net non-agricultural job growth of a relatively strong 227,000 last month and also an upward revision to the January figure.  The official Unemployment Rate remained at 8.3%. Read Article

Wednesday, March 7th, 2012

Unfortunately, this will have to be an abbreviated message as the sheer size of this gathering has made it difficult to set aside time for writing plus the time requirements to return to British Columbia tonight are also pressing.  Read Article

Monday, March 5th, 2012

To also state the fact that the precious metals gave the markets a negative jolt last week would be a serious understatement as the $92 one-day decline of mid-week has many people wondering about the durability of the long term bull markets in both silver and gold.  Read Article

Monday, February 27th, 2012

On many occasions, it is not sufficient to simply observe the action in one important indicator, as valuable information may be gleaned by comparing action in one item to another important commodity.  Such is the case with gold and silver.  Read Article

Friday, February 24th, 2012

Many people collect various items while traveling, perhaps including artefacts, clothing, local liquors and liqueurs, even local currencies and coins.  My personal favourite is to collect national, state or urban publications and then review them at leisure, focusing on financial information.  One such article gathered during my recent travels stood out as if it were printed in bright red ink of banner headline size!  Read Article

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

In all of the celebration over the latest Greek rescue program, an important question of political philosophy is being utterly ignored.  That question may be posed as follows:  "When did the Greek people agree that an international body should have the right to impose conditions on their sovereign nation?"  A second question might be whether a combination of international forces should be able to coerce Greece into keeping the Euro as their currency against their own wishes.   Read Article

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

I have just returned from visiting one of the most important mining nations on Earth, Mexico.  During my visits, I spent some time in both Durango and Hermosillo and it was the latter city which was most impressive.  Anyone who still thinks of Mexico as a backwater nation would be forced to revise their opinion after visiting that modern, vibrant city of about 1,000,000 people.  Read Article

Monday, February 20th, 2012

Due to the holiday and market closures, we will resume the Melman Minutes tomorrow.

Friday, February 17th, 2012

Greetings from Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico which is perhaps one of the most modern and advanced Mexican cities we have visited on our various travels, but which still illustrates just how different life in Mexico remains when compared to Canada, the US, Australia or other “advanced” nations. Read Article

Thursday, February 16th, 2012

Due to Leonard's unexpected  travel delays, today's Minute will not be available.  Our Melman Minutes will resume tomorrow. 

Sorry for this,

Monday, February 13th, 2012

While much of the world's attention has been focused on Greece and that nation's many real and difficult struggles which range from social disorder to virtual collapse of its economic system, our attention this morning is elsewhere.  Over the weekend, we pieced together information on a problem which has the potential to be catastrophic - and, in our opinion, that statement is no exaggeration.  Read Article

Friday, February 10th, 2012

All of us like to belong to clubs of our choice, be they country clubs, golf clubs, Lions Clubs, Rotary, Optimists, Shriners and so forth, with apologies to any meritorious organizations I might have omitted.  However, from time to time, unwanted membership in 'clubs' takes place and this morning we learned that Greece had just joined one such organization.  Read Article

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

It seems to us that in one particular manner, the year 2012 has not started with a "bang", but rather with some sort of "slither".  After two or three years of dynamic, fast-paced international financial action, financial news during the early part of 2012 reminds us of the Oriental saying, "death by a thousand cuts".  Here is why.

Read Article

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

Due to non-negotiable tight publication deadlines for other articles in progress, the “Melman Minute” normally prepared for this morning has been re-scheduled for tomorrow morning. We plan to publish a “Melman Minute” per our usual schedule on Friday as well.

Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience caused by this re-scheduling.

Yours truly,

Leonard Melman

Monday, February 6th, 2012

One of the most famous quotes from Shakespeare appears in the play "Hamlet" and goes, "To be or not to be, that is the question..."  Well, for today's times, I would like to paraphrase it to ask, "To have free markets or not to have free markets; that is the question..." Read Article

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

January's Jobs Report was issued by the U. S. Department of Labor right on schedule this morning and one can only imagine the pleasure those numbers brought to the Obama Administration as the election of November 2012 draws nearer.  Read Article

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

It has been said that there are "liars, damned liars and then statistics", meaning we should not put our trust in statistics alone, but should view such information with more than a slightly jaundiced eye.  However, in our experience, we occasionally run across statistical data with such stark implications that we do indeed sit up and take notice.   Read Article

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Several days ago, I used part of this space to comment on the unnatural appearance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the latter part of December and throughout January, pointing out that the amazingly limited variance from a straight line suggested market action which was both "artificial" and "manipulated."    Read Article

Friday, January 27th, 2012

When it comes to facility with the English language, one of my favourites (by far!) was the great 19th Century lyricist Sir William S. Gilbert, the famous wordsmith whose words were set to glorious music by the equally talented Sir Arthur Sullivan.  As I watch the often contradictory flow of financial and political news of late, I am reminded of one of Gilbert's famous lines from the operetta "H.M.S. Pinafore", "...Things are seldom what they seem; skim milk masquerades as cream."  Read Article

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

I realize what follows in this morning's "Melman Minute" may forever bar me from potential membership in the "Barak Obama Fan Club", but I will willingly take that risk. However, following last night's State of the Union Address" (which was anything but a speech consistent with historic State of the Union Addresses), I feel compelled to comment on the implications of his speech to our world of precious and base metals mining.  Read Article

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Greetings from the Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Conference where approximately 12,000 enthusiastic attendees have thronged the Vancouver Convention Center with, in our opinion, two primary questions in mind.  First, where is the financial world heading and, second, why are so many mining shares ailing despite generally robust action in the prices of the metals?  Read Article

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Momentum is a strange thing.  Many of us who follow our favourite football, hockey or basketball teams can cite many examples where a period of lacklustre performance is followed by gathering strength until the entire tenor of the game changes.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

One of the advantages of having been around long enough to be considered a "gray-beard" is that through actual experience, one is able to identify certain repeating characteristics and I believe this is particularly true of precious metals bull markets.  Read Article

Monday, January 16th, 2012

A list of attributes which might be of benefit to a financial analyst might include the ability to digest reams of data, a background of accumulating economic knowledge, some familiarity with technical analysis and so forth.  However, such a list would not normally include possessing a sense of humour, but that is exactly what was called for as I perused some of the headlines accumulated over the past weekend. Read Article

Friday, January 13th, 2012

Oh, it must be Friday the 13th! 

I am unfortunately stranded in Quebec due to weather and not able to produce a minute for today.  Our minutes will resume on Monday the 16th.

Leonard

Monday, November 14th, 2011

In our opinion here at TMR, an epidemic is sweeping across the Western World and it is one we believe is inflicting a terrible disservice.  I am referring to the recently-developed talent among the financial media as well as politicians and financial leadership to make glorious-sounding statements which say virtually nothing of value.  Read Article

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

Every so often, the markets present us with a puzzling situation where the fundamental facts would suggest one direction, but the performance of the item in question suggests something else. The world of the petroleum complex offers us a timely example of just such a conundrum. Read Article

Monday, November 7th, 2011

One of the great benefits of trading charts is that they are able to convey information on months of activity within a single glance, as opposed to attempting to absorb days, weeks, months or even years of digital data. 

The gold chart reflecting the past few months provides us with an excellent example . . Read Article

Friday, November 4th, 2011

One of the central themes at “The Melman Report” is that the world is already drowning in fiat currency and the outlook, as we see things, is that the path is wide open for the unlimited creation of more of the same.  That theme was reinforced by a news release this morning,   Read Article

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

One can only wonder just how many outright failures, how many revisions to set plans, how many reversals, dodging and evasions regarding already-announced plans it will take before the world stops losing faith in the 'solutions’ concocted by various political establishments.  Read Article

Monday, October 31st , 2011

Every so often, it would appear worthwhile to re-state our overall thinking on economic matters as they relate to both the precious and base metals.  The present time period seems to qualify as especially important. 

Read Article

Friday, October 28th , 2011

Well, if the world’s financial markets are to be believed, Europe’s financial problems have been resolved, America is headed back toward renewed prosperity and, as Churchill might have put things, we can all move forward to “broad sunlit uplands.”  What else can one conclude after looking at the major financial market charts reflecting activity during the past few weeks?  Read Article

Wednesday, October 26th , 2011

The swings in fortunes for both the base and precious metals over the past few weeks have been nothing short of astonishing.  Since early September, gold has endured a top-to-bottom loss of almost $400 and then turned around to quickly recover almost half that figure.  The gold chart shows the decline from nearly $1,930 to a low of around $1,540, followed by the recent surge which has carried gold to an intra-day high of about $1,720 earlier this morning. Read Article

Monday, October 24th , 2011

First, optimism is once again rampant among the world's political and financial media.  Where just one month ago, reams of stories were circulating which described a world ready to plunge into recession or chaos, quite suddenly the direction of news has turned around - and carried most financial markets around the globe to relative highs, with the Dow Industrials leaping by about 1,000 points during the most recent rally period.

Read Article

Wednesday, October 19th , 2011

Signs are beginning to appear that the inflation dragon might be in the process of re-awakening, despite the fact that many observers might have concluded it had been slain, perhaps forever.   Read Article

Monday, October 17th , 2011

Two figures stood out during our weekly review of reams of economic data and, quite frankly, both give us pause for serious concern regarding the general economic future.  The first, “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Government Debt”, is continuing on its recent downward path.  The second, the level of “US National Debt” is approaching a staggering – and ominous – ‘round’ number.  Read Article

Friday, October 14th , 2011

What started as a minor curiosity and then grew next in a rapidly-expanding intrusion into our daily consciousness has now burgeoned into a full-blown phenomenon. Of course, we are referring to the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. Some of the figures relating to its international growth are remarkable,  Read Article

Wednesday, October 12th , 2011

Strong buying in gold and silver during the overnight hours has resulted in sharply higher openings in North America this morning.  Gold has surged by almost $30 and is once again approaching the $1,700 level while silver has added about 80 cents and is again near $33.00.  However,  Read Article

Monday, October 10th , 2011

Despite the fact that all Canadian markets are closed for the Canadian Thanksgiving Day and America’s bond markets are also taking the Columbus Day off, many markets remain open and some of them have been particularly active so far this morning.  Financial markets have opened strongly higher as have precious metals markets as well with gold reaching into the $1,670’s before some light selling set in.  Read Article

Friday, October 7th , 2011

HERE WE GO AGAIN!  As the chart below depicts so clearly, the world’s financial markets, as exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, have embarked on a series of rallies followed by declines followed by rallies followed by declines ad infinitum that has been ongoing now for almost three months.  During that time, there have been no less than TEN alternating short-term moves in the DJIA of 500 points or more.  The most recent in the series is a recent rally which has recovered more than 500 points since the dismal days of last week.  Read Article

Wednesday, October 5th , 2011

As we have noted previously, there are two particular types of information we consider in arriving at our suggested price movement estimates.  One is ‘fundamental’, or an analysis of general information such as supply and demand, industry trends, political influences, relevant economic data and so forth.  The other form of information is known generally at ‘chart analysis’ or ‘technical analysis’, referring to analyzing actual market action as depicted on price charts.   Read Article

Monday, October 3rd , 2011

There is a clear split among the metals we watch most closely at “The Melman Report.”  Those metals which relate to industrial production once again moved to the downside early this morning while the monetary metals, namely gold and silver, are showing good gains on the openings.   Read Article

Friday, September 30th , 2011

There is a word which has been raising its ugly head on an increasing basis, and we at The Melman Report can take credit for warning you several months ago that due to increasing desperation, this word would come into significant play.  Read Article

Monday, September 26th , 2011

It always amazes us just how quickly market sentiment can change, both negatively and positively and, in the case of last week’s volatile markets, it took only one word from the Fed to send markets reeling around the world.  That word was “significant” as in ‘significant problems for the American economy’.   Read Article

Friday, September 23rd , 2011

DEAR READERS:
 
While it is true that, as Billy Chrystal yelled out in "City Slickers", " I'M ON VACATION ! ", it is also true that enormously important actions are taking place on a variety of fronts. Many of these may have huge implications for the world at large as well as our world of precious and base metals mining.

Therefore, I plan to take the time over the weekend to prepare a special "Melman Minute" which will be posted Monday morning, along with commentary on market action as the new week opens.

Have a great weekend!

Leonard Melman

Friday, September 16th , 2011

Details of the latest ‘rescue’ program (just how many have there been?) are now emerging and, given the nature of this latest European plan, it is easy to conclude that the level of desperation among the world’s financial leaders is rising rapidly, for it is apparent that, to use an over-worked expression, they are ‘pulling out all the stops’.   Read Article

Thursday, September 15th , 2011

Once again, markets have turned a blind eye to the same troubles that consumer their interest and reversed their previous actions.     Read Article

Friday, September 9th , 2011

Long time readers will have no difficulty recalling that your editor has long-standing disagreements with President Obama and, frankly, we even question whether he has the ability, knowledge and experience to handle the job of President of the United States.    Read Article

Wednesday, September 7th , 2011

Several issues past, we noted a trend which was becoming apparent and recent events appear to be confirming its continuing existence.   Read Article

Tuesday, September 6th , 2011

Thanks to the long weekend just past, we were able to update some of our economic research at “The Melman Report” and one particular study is radiating bright “red warning flags”.  We are referring to the Federal Reserve Board’s publication of “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt.”  Read Article

Friday, September 2nd , 2011

It appears that after several months of seeming disjointed action where many market moves did not follow a normally predictable path, we have finally entered a period when market reactions are beginning to make at least a modicum of sense.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 31st , 2011

It is truly amazing how often we see the same errors being repeated over and over again.  This morning’s news wires present us with two examples to illustrate the principle. Read Article

Monday, August 29th , 2011

If there was one phrase which describes the general reaction relating to financial markets around the world this morning it is a “sense of relief” that things have not turned out to be as bad as had been previously believed.
Read Article

Friday, August 26th , 2011

Well, the world had been holding its breath waiting for word from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, wondering what majestic programs the Fed Chairman might tell us about in his long-awaited address from the monetary leaders’ gathering at Jackson Hole, WY.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 24th , 2011

When we wrote the following comment this past Monday, we didn’t expect quite the immediate and drastic market action which ensued.    Read Article

Monday, August 22nd , 2011

Gold - and now silver as well - continue to confound doubters by moving relentlessly higher. The yellow metal is now knocking on the doorstep of $1,900 per ounce while silver is moving strongly ahead as well, now approaching $44.00 per ounce.    Read Article

Friday, August 19th , 2011

Just a few months ago, virtually no one would have predicted the power of gold’s monumental move of the past several weeks.  It has caught virtually everyone by surprise, including ourselves.  Many “gold bulls” fully expected further gains for the yellow metal in the last half of the year, but it is the speed with which those gains have been attained that is the startling feature.    Read Article

Thursday, August 18th , 2011

Anyone who knows me personally is aware that I have a definite aversion to using profanity, but this morning I find only one description of various ongoing information releases to be of worth: “Boy, is the $&%^ hitting the fan today!”   Read Article

Monday, August 15th , 2011

One of the subjects dealt with in a recent Melman Minute was the concept of trading volume relating to the direction of a major market move. Unfortunately, at that time we had only a few minutes to deal with this difficult subject but market action is presently muted so far today, so we have a bit more time to explore the subject more thoroughly.  Read Article

Friday, August 12th , 2011

Markets appear to have calmed down somewhat, at least for the moment, which makes this lull an excellent time to take a step back and evaluate recent market moves and attempt to suggest whether the sudden recent moves to the upside in financial markets and declines in gold reflect genuine reversals - or whether, in fact, they are simply corrective actions within ongoing trends.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 10th , 2011

One of the most interesting divergences we have noticed of late is the enormous difference in the performance of gold compared to the other ‘semi-monetary’ metals such as silver, platinum and palladium. While gold has been moving powerfully from one record high to another – it rallied to just above $1,780 this morning – the other three have been mired in patterns of mediocre performance as their price charts trace out sideways patterns.  Read Article

Monday, August 8th , 2011

The central point of our 2011 Forecast for gold, silver and platinum was a specific prediction that the general public would begin to lose faith in the ability of the political and financial systems to restore stability and prosperity to this globe’s financial affairs. Our supposition was that, at present, very few people harboured such doubts, but as the year progressed, the number of skeptics would rise and, as that number increased, additional funds would pour into the precious metals and they would rise, with our forecast for gold calling for $1,850 by year-end 2011.  Read Article

When we went to sleep last night, it was impossible to avoid wondering what the markets might deliver this morning. After all, Thursday’s trading results included the TSX Index down by over 430 points, the Dow Industrials off by more than 500, the S&P 500 Index down by more than 60, NASDAQ down by a whopping 136. In addition, all major European exchanges suffered through heavy selling and we must also note that all mining share indexes got clobbered as well, specifically including the mining-sensitive “Toronto-Venture” exchange which suffered through one of its biggest percentage losses in history.  Read Article

The gold market has clearly given its verdict on the recent United States Congress’ concept of a ‘solution’ to the American debt crisis. We believe gold is saying, as succinctly as possible, “...This was the wrong action to take. You had a chance to make a real impact on indebtedness for generations to come but you opted instead for the easy path of business as close to usual as possible. For shame!”  Read Article

It is amazing just how wrong the ‘conventional media’ can get things. Once President Obama made his Friday speech announcing that a resolution to the debt default crisis was at hand – something he would not have done unless it was a ‘done deal’ – pundits from radio to TV to print media all began forecasting a reversal to the downside for gold, since, as they so unctuously explained, it was only the apparent onrushing debt limitation crisis which had propelled gold to its recent record highs. Boy, were they in for a surprise.  Read Article

Friday, July 29th, 2011

Of all the attributes of gold, one of the least understood or mentioned is that it often functions as a “reverse thermometer” of societal stability. In other words, as the functions of society appear to be performing in a stable, satisfactory manner, gold usually performs poorly, but if gold is soaring, then the implication is society is heading toward “hell in a hand-basket.”  Read Article

Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

Quite recently, we wrote about the seeming non-conformity of gold and the US Dollar rising in tandem, rather than moving in the opposite direction as had been the normal case for most of the past several decades. As readers might recall, we offered the explanation that both gold and the Greenback were benefitting from the monetary turmoil in Europe and each may well have been the beneficiary of funds seeking a safe haven. We also added the caveat that:  Read Article

Monday, July 25th, 2011

It has been our pleasure to have been commenting, in one way or another, on political and economic events and how they have affected our world of precious and base metals mining for almost four decades. During all those years, we can never recall a period when so many events of potentially cataclysmic – and we use that term advisedly – events have been taking place virtually simultaneously.  Read Article

Friday, July 22nd, 2011

Every so often, a political or international financial leader says something that perhaps provides a little more information to the public than might have been intended. I believe such was the case with a self-congratulatory statement from the IMF which was printed in “The Times of London” newspaper this morning.  Read Article

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Going back to the general principals which guide us, one of the most important is the concept that governments have created the enormous debt problems now staggering one country after another because for decade after decade, they spent more than they have taken in via legitimate taxation revenues.  Read Article

CURRENT MINUTES